A fall is possible.

On the daily chart, the third wave of the higher level 3 ended, and a correction develops as the fourth wave 4, within which the wave (A) of 4 formed. Now, the wave (B) of 4 is ending, within which the wave C of (B) is ending. If the assumption is correct, the USD/JPY pair will fall to the area of 138.80–131.50. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 161.93.

The USD/JPY pair renewed the November high at the resistance level of 156.53 amid the strengthening of the American dollar by 1.25% after the US Fed interest rate adjustment by –25 basis points to 4.50%. During the subsequent press conference, the head of the regulator, Jerome Powell, said that the national economy and labor market have been actively recovering in recent months, and the consumer price index is approaching the target of 2.0%. Thus, financial authorities can slow the pace by easing monetary policy, although inflation risks still prevail.

During the morning session, the USD/JPY pair is consolidating near the 153.40 level. Yesterday, the quotes fell slightly, which did not allow the “bulls” to consolidate at the highs renewed within the upward trend observed since December 9.

The USD/JPY pair is showing mixed trading, consolidating near 154.20 and local highs from November 25. "Bullish" activity remains quite low as investors prefer to wait for the results of the two-day US Federal Reserve meeting, which will be announced tomorrow at 21:00 (GMT+2). According to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME Group) FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25-basis-point interest rate cut is 95.4%, despite the fact that the US economy is recovering strongly and inflation remains around 3.0%.